The (Social) Pressure Is On

Welcome to Gradient’s Newsletter!

We finally have the answer to “What do I do when Uncle Jerry brings up January 6 at Thanksgiving dinner”? You open this link, CTRL+F “January 6” and watch the tension ease immediately. You’re welcome, America. Thanksgiving 2024 can go on as planned.  

One of our dearest (and coolest) long-term partners, Populace, a non-partisan think tank, used Gradient's research methodology to do something academics have been striving to accomplish for centuries: produce research that means something to the average person. 

The Social Pressure Index reveals the topics where Americans are most likely to self-censor their deeply held beliefs on socially sensitive issues. What do we mean by sensitive? DEI, abortion, gun rights, affirmative action, Jan 6, communism. Wait? How could we forget immigration? Or the Israel/Hamas conflict? Geez, there is a lot to disagree about right now. But do we actually disagree?

If a topic would make for an uncomfortable Thanksgiving dinner, wedding cocktail hour, or… marriage, we evaluated the extent to which our fellow Americans feel social pressure to censor how they really feel. 

Our hope is that the Social Pressure Index changes the way Americans view each other—and themselves. This is because the method relies on contrasting private, deeply-held opinions with the positions that Americans will declare publicly.

For the Social Pressure Index, survey respondents were guaranteed privacy through a fancy technique called a list experiment. As opposed to being asked directly about how they feel toward sensitive topics, respondents were asked to read a list of statements and choose the number with which they agree. This means they never have to actually identify which statements they agree with—thereby granting a large degree of privacy or plausible deniability—but through our statistical wizardry, we reverse-engineered where there is a difference between private and public belief within the population.

Some surprising good news: Privately, Americans agree on most issues. Yes, for two-thirds of the 64 painfully sensitive topics we evaluated, 90% of demographic groups hold the same majority view—hinting at the potential for some semblance of consensus. 

In private, a whopping 75% of Americans express support for individual liberties, with a majority of every demographic group we tested agreeing that individuals should make decisions for themselves, rather than have experts make unilateral decisions. Complementing majority support for individual liberties, only 18% of Americans privately agree that the greater good is more important than individual rights. This means that even if there is some strife at Thanksgiving dinner, most Americans think it’s ok to let Uncle Jerry be Uncle Jerry.  

Ok but there has to be bad news, right? Of course—it’s still 2024. Although more than one-third of Americans publicly think we live in a mostly fair society—already a shameful baseline—in private, only 7% of Americans think we live in a fair society. The 30-point difference between public opinion and private opinion represents the largest overall gap in opinion among the 64 statements. America, we’ve got some homework to do.  

So… what do we do with this? Beyond fundamentally challenging how we view each other, these results suggest that if we conversed a little more, got out of our regular social malaise, and were a little more honest with each other, there could be far less strife and division. 

One of Populace’s aims with this research is to contribute to honest discourse across all aspects of society: that’s where social pressure enters the group chat. In fact, a majority of Americans (58%) believe most people cannot share their honest opinions about sensitive topics in society today, perhaps because of the fear of being “canceled” from your neighborhood email listserv. But our private opinion research reveals every demographic group of Americans, regardless of age, race, or gender, self-censors their opinions on multiple sensitive issues. Something to keep in mind while you’re carving the turkey: We’re all hiding something.

We are deeply grateful to Populace for the partnership and openness to experimentation that resulted in the Social Pressure Index. This is the kind of research that we love to do, and we hope that it changes how you view the world, too. 

Are traditional public polling methods not working for your organization? Set up a free consultation and we can help you understand the deeply-held opinions and preferences of your audience.